TOP SECRET
Distribution:
ME + Africa Station Chief
Secretary of State
National Security Advisor
Intelligence Bulletin
ISTANBUL – 7 March 2017
13:45 TRT [UTC+3:00]
Subject: Rebel Activity in western Iraq
Type: Military Takeover
Imminent Humanitarian Crisis
Status: Elevated / Urgent
Action:
Kumari rebels entered Anbar providence early this morning killing 67 Iraqi solders and wounding another 26. Approximately 170 rebels have seized control of the al-Sadat airbase in the western most part of the providence. Reports indicate they are mounting an attack on the Raqqa refugee camp in the eastern Jordanian Governorate of al-Mafraq; 27 kilometers northeast of their present position. The rebels are heavily armed with both small arms and light weapons and as many as 40 tanks and personnel carriers. It is also believed that that an unknown number of the insurgents are trained pilots capable of flying the 50 F-16s stationed at al-Sadat.
Impact:
Loss of Territorial Control
Loss of Iraqi Military Assets
Diminished Iraqi Morale
Heightened Sense of Confidence among Anti-government Forces
Jordanian Troop Build-up along the Iraqi Border
High Potential for Humanitarian Crisis
Requested Response:
Jordanian and Iraqi military leaders are in the planning stages of mounting a coordinated counter offensive. They request U.S. support in the form of 10 surface to surface missile batteries, 300 ground elite ground forces, command and control assets, and air support.
Failure to Act:
Jordanian and Iraqi units will suffer moderate to high casualties.
Rebel capture of the Raqqa camp will result in high civilian casualties and the capture of potential hundreds of hostages. This will leave governments vulnerable to blackmail and embolden like-minded groups to conduct similar operations.
Recommended Response:
Embedding US solders in Iraqi/Jordanian battalions is likely to undermine both morale and confidence among both solders and the public. It is therefore best that any response to the Kumari insurgency appears to be under the authority of local governments.
Conclusion: Jordanian and Iraqi forces are capable on their own. The provision of command and control assets in combination with US air support can be deployed without public knowledge and will greatly reduce battlefield and civilian casualties.
Cost Estimate:
2.5 Million per day
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