ME + Africa Station Chief
Massad Intelligence – 23 July 2018
13:22 TRT [UTC+3:00]
Subject: Intelligence Report – HSM Take Responsibility for Bombings in Adigrat
Type: Direct Threat to U.S. Interests in Persian Gulf
Event: The IRGC has increased influence in Eretria and Ethiopia through infiltrating and winning over factions of Al-Shabaab (HSM) by fighting the peace process between the two nations. Since the peace treaty about the border dispute was signed two days ago between Eretria and Ethiopia, a pipeline of weapons, weapons makers, and money from the IRGC has flowed to the two nations.
HSM is an Islamist group operating primarily in Southern Somalia. It has close ties with al-Qaeda and other Saudi-backed groups operating in Yemen, as well as other Islamist groups in North Africa, namely Boko Haram. This event would signal a shift from their historical ties with Saudi Arabia.
This increased activity on the horn of Africa threatens shipping lanes through the gulf of Aden and the red sea. The increased instability in the region is a presumed goal of the IRGC and a threat to peaceful States. The military and intelligence capabilities of Ethiopia and Eretria will not be able to counter the actions of the IRGC through HSM.
A meeting of Intelligence officers to address this issue.
Israel recommends air strikes, or other means of military force to counter this act, and growing threat. This needs to be followed by continued police cooperation on the gulf by Saudi Arabia and Israel.
Failure to Act:
The proliferation of weapons (possibly chemical), and increased terrorist attacks through out the horn of Africa to increase instability.