As the end of Russian and United States participation in the INF treaty approaches, the focus of arms agreements between the states turns to 2010’s New START. It is crucial to maintain some sort of legislature between Russia and the US, as “nontransparent” and “unpredictable” behavior is too risky. As bilateral talks between the US and Russia seem unlikely, a European role may emerge as an important negotiator. Given Germany’s recent diplomatic dialogue, it may be a good candidate for this role. The article discusses treaty crafting, verification regimes, and the necessity of Russian willingness to negotiate with a European entity.
Impact: As the demise of the INF becomes more and more imminent, it is important to ensure there is some agreement between Russia and the US to take over. Lack of agreement could have dangerous consequences, especially if New START is not supported. Having European states fill the negotiation role could be a smart move, as long as Russia is willing to come to the table.See article here: https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2019-03/features/inf-treaty-crisis-filling-void-european-leadership